Now several months, some data and estimates on the impact of COVID-19 are beginning to emerge. Numbers can read like sentences, providing direction as to where we should go next. The below is a list of some projections and actuals we feel are relevant to the discussion. Note this is an active list; we’ll continue to update the information below, adding and subtracting from the below as new data and projections emerge.<\/p>\n
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The CARES Act prevented the poverty rate from rising to 16.3 percent and instead the poverty rate remained at 12.7 percent.<\/p>\n
– \u201cThe CARES Act Could Reduce Poverty to Pre-Crisis Levels if Access is Adequate<\/a>,\u201d Center on Poverty & Social Policy at Columbia University, 21 June 2020.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Within the black and Hispanic population, the CARES Act prevented a 7 percent and 5 percent increase in poverty rates, respectively.<\/p>\n – Jason DeParle, \u201cVast Federal Aid Has Capped Rise in Poverty, Studies Find<\/a>,\u201d New York Times, 21 June 2020.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n In the private sector, about four million workers have had their pay cut and six million workers have been forced to work part time, even though they prefer full time work.<\/p>\n – Heather Long, \u201cPay Cuts are Becoming a Defining Feature of the Coronavirus Recession<\/a>,\u201d The Washington Post, 01 July 2020.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n “If quarterly unemployment hits 30 percent \u2014 as the president of one Federal Reserve Bank predicts<\/a> \u2014 15.4 percent of Americans will fall into poverty for the year, the Columbia researchers found, even in the unlikely event the economy instantly recovers. That level of poverty would exceed the peak of the Great Recession and add nearly 10 million people to the ranks of the poor.”<\/p>\n – Jason DeParle, “A Gloomy Prediction on How Much Poverty Could Rise<\/a>,” New York Times, 16 April 2020<\/p>\n <\/p>\n During the fourth quarter of 2020, the number of uninsured people could be 34 million.<\/p>\n – \u201cCovid-19 Impact on Medicaid, Marketplace, and the Uninsured,\u201d Health Management Associates, May 2020.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n By early May, more than 16 million workers have lost employer sponsored health insurance.<\/p>\n – \u201cVirus Threat Grows in U.S. Where Millions Lost Health Coverage,\u201d Bloomberg, 30 June 2020.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Between 01 March and 02 May, a total 26.8 million people, including workers and their dependents, became uninsured due to loss of employer-sponsored health coverage. Of that, 5.7 million people are ineligible for subsidized ACA coverage.<\/p>\n – \u201cAs Unemployment Skyrockets, KFF Estimates More than 20 Million People Losing Job-Based Health Coverage Will Become Eligible for ACA Coverage through Medicaid or Marketplace Tax Credits,\u201d Kaiser Family Foundation, 13 May 2020.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n In the worst-case scenario, the unemployment rate could rise to 20 percent, which means that about 25 million people will lose their employer-sponsored health insurance.<\/p>\n – \u201cHow the Covid-19 Recession Could Affect Health Insurance Coverage<\/a>,\u201d Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, May 2020.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n “Uninsured numbers could increase to 40 million, with bigger impacts in non-[Medicaid] expansion states.”<\/p>\n – Health Management Associates, “COVID-19 Impact on Medicaid, Marketplace, and the Uninsured, by State,<\/a>” April 2020.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n As part of the CARES Act, Congress has allocated $175 billion to reimburse hospitals and providers for treating uninsured individuals with COVID-19.<\/p>\n – Karyn Schwartz, \u201cLimitations of the Program for Uninsured COVID-19 Patients Raise Concerns,\u201d Kaiser Family Foundation, 16 June 2020.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Although the CARES Act should cover treatment costs for uninsured people, funding may run out. This is problematic because for uninsured individuals or those using an out-of-network provider, hospitalizations for COVID-19 could cost $40,000 to $70,000.<\/p>\n – Megan Leonhardt, \u201cUninsured Americans Could Be Facing Nearly $75,000 in Medical Bills if Hospitalized for Coronavirus,\u201d CNBC, 01 April 2020.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u201cSince the government does not regulate health care costs, laboratory providers can charge $100 to $2,315 for each COVID-19 test. Since certain insurance plans may not cover the entire cost, this means that the provider can bill the remaining balance directly to the patient. Expensive testing costs could further result in higher premiums.\u201d<\/p>\n – Sarah Kliff, \u201cMost Coronavirus Tests Cost About $100. Why Did One Cost $2,315,\u201d The New York Times, 16 June 2020.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u201cRemdesivir is the only known drug to quicken the recovery time for COVID-19. For patients with government-sponsored insurance, the cost for Remdesivir will be $390 per vial or $2,340 per treatment course. For patients with private insurance, the cost will be slightly higher, at $520 per vial or 3,120 per treatment course.\u201d<\/p>\n – Gina Kolata, \u201cRemdesivir, the First Coronavirus Drug, Gets a Price Tag,\u201d 29 June 2020.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n One common complication of COVID-19 is pneumonia, which occurs when there is an infection in the lungs. In 2018, the cost for pneumonia hospitalizations was about $10,000 to $20,000. Employer-sponsored insurance covered a portion of that, but the average out-of-pocket cost was $1,300.<\/p>\n – \u201cWhat Is the Cost Of COVID-19 Treatment,\u201d NPR, 29 March 2020.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Hospitals have reported a 20 percent and 35 percent volume reduction for inpatient and outpatient services, respectively. Due to the decrease in patient volume and the otherwise high costs for COVID-19 treatments, hospitals have reported financial losses. From March to June, hospitals have lost about $200 billion.<\/p>\n – \u201cHospitals and Health Systems Continue to Face Unprecedented Financial Challenges Due to COVID-19,\u201d American Hospital Association, June 2020.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n “We estimate total payments to hospitals for treating uninsured patients under the Trump administration policy would range from $13.9 billion to $41.8 billion. At the top end of the range, payments on behalf of the uninsured would consume more than 40% of the $100 billion fund Congress created to help hospitals and others respond to the COVID-19 epidemic.”<\/p>\n – “Estimated Cost of Treating the Uninsured Hospitalized with COVID-19<\/a>,” Kaiser Family Foundation, 07 April 2020.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n “… For those with insurance who are using in-network providers, out-of-pocket costs will be a portion of $21,936 to $38,755, depending on the cost-sharing provisions of their health plan.”<\/p>\n “The Projected Economic Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the US Healthcare System,”<\/a> Fair Health, 25 March 2020.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n From February to May, the number of unemployed individuals increased from 6.2 million to 20.5 million. During the same time period, the unemployment rate increased from 3.8 percent to 13.0 percent.<\/p>\n – Rakesh Kochhar, \u201cUnemployment rose higher in three months of COVID-19 than it did in two years of the Great Recession,\u201d Pew Research Center, 11 June 2020.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n In June, the unemployment rate fell to 11.1 percent and there were 4.8 million jobs added to the economy. Compared to the February unemployment numbers, there were still 15 million fewer jobs. Due to the second wave of infections, it is likely that businesses could close again, causing unemployment to increase.<\/p>\n – Ben Casselman, \u201cAfter June Job Gains, Still a \u2018Deep Hole,\u2019 and New Worries,\u201d The New York Times, 02 July 2020.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n From February to April, black adults were 4 percent more likely to be unemployed than their white counterparts.<\/p>\n – Elise Gould, \u201cBlack Workers Face Two of the Most Lethal Preexisting Conditions for Coronavirus\u2014Racism and Economic Inequality,\u201d Economic Policy Institute, 01 June 2020.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n “The financial impact of the coronavirus is hitting Americans hard: 33 percent of voters have already lost their job, been furloughed, placed on temporary leave, or had hours reduced, with 41 percent of those who\u2019ve lost a job already reporting having trouble covering basic costs. Black voters are feeling the worst of the financial crisis with almost half (45 percent) reporting they\u2019ve lost jobs, hours, or been put on leave.”<\/p>\n – “The Staggering Economic Impact of the Coronavirus Pandemic,” Data for Progress, 09 April 2020. Download the PDF report here. <\/a><\/p>\n <\/p>\n “If initial jobless claims don\u2019t begin leveling off, a 30% unemployment rate<\/a> moves from ‘the realm of possibility\u201d to \u201cthe most likely forecast,’ said Sahm, a former Federal Reserve economist.”<\/p>\nIncreased volume of uninsured<\/h3>\n
Cost of care<\/h3>\n
Unemployment<\/h3>\n